Journal of Contemporary Macroeconomic Issues

How Trade Liberalization Effects Services Sector Growth? A Case of Some Selected South Asian Countries

Khatiba Asmat Zahra — 2023-06-01

The current study attempts to find how trade liberalization effects services sector growth of selected South Asian economies. Yearly panel data for 1990-2020 was utilized for four selected countries; Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. Long run results of panel Autoregressive distributed Lag ARDL model indicates that trade openness and capital investment have positive and significant impact on services sector whereas government - household consumption expenditure, labor force, and inflation have inverse relation with service sector growth. In order to enhance the third largest sector of the economy and to boost its growth, study concludes with the empirical findings that governments of these countries require to reformulate their trade policies which should be less restrictive. Moreover, should put effort to design strategies on; creating free trade zone or south Asian economic union that will be a source of employment for less skilled workers as well, low-cost skill development schemes and restructuring regional labor markets.

Saving, Foreign Inflows and Economic Growth: Evidence from Selected Developing Countries

Mah Rukh Shabbir — 2023-06-02

The current study seeks to investigate the impact of saving and foreign inflows on economic growth of selected developing economies such as Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka by utilizing yearly panel data for 1990-2020. Long run results of panel ARDL indicate that trade openness and capital investment have positive and significant effects on services sector whereas, government - household consumption expenditure, labor force and inflation have inverse relation with services growth. In order to enhance the economic growth, the Governments are required to improve the education sector along with the tax rebates for the business sector so that target of excelling economic growth be accomplished.

Does External Debt Being a New Factor of Fiscal Policy Influence a Long-Term Income-Inequality in Pakistan?

Muqadas Sadaqat — 2023-06-01

One of the most important and difficult economic variables that slow down a nation's economic progress is external debt. An economy where the wealth disparity between rich and poor is considerable will be significantly impacted by debt. A crucial macroeconomic measure of an economy that explains the equitable allocation and distribution of resources among the masses is the GINI index of any nation. The UN SDGs' ultimate objective is to reduce income inequality among the general population of the world's countries. By considering the debt to GDP ratio, this study studies the effect of debt burden and its extensive effects on the inequality of Pakistan's residents. The most popular method of generating income for debt repayment is taxation. The ARDL model is used in this work to investigate the short- and long-term estimations of the debt-inequality nexus. The study concludes that debt raises the burden on the general public in the form of high taxes, and as a result, an increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio causes Pakistan's inequality index to rise. Despite the reliance on internal fund collection in the form of a tax, the study proposes opening up international trade and domestic industry to increase the revenue inflow.

The Implications of Ecological Footprint for EKC Hypothesis by Considering Cross-section Dependence and Heterogeneity

Misbah Nosheen — 2023-06-01

“Ecological Footprint” is increasingly being used as a stand-in for environmental deterioration in current energy, environment, and growth literature. By including ecological footprint together with other independent variables such as energy usage, GDP, trade, and urbanization for a few Asian nations between 1990 and 2018, this analysis adds to the body of current work. Findings support panel heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependency. The study established a long run cointegration relationship among variables. The findings of the FMOLS study show that actual income has a favorable effect on ecological footprints. For a few Asian nations, we find no support for the EKC theory. The results of this research provide a clearer understanding of how the economic factors and ecological footprint interact. Energy efficiency initiatives should be implemented in these nations to encourage energy saving and the use of renewable energy to reduce environmental effects. Moreover, plans to boost the economies of the Asian region's nations' revenue-generating industries are advised.

An Empirical Investigation of External Debt-Military Expenditure Nexus in Pakistan

Saima Sadiq — 2023-06-01

The correlation between military expenditure and external debt is a significant concern, and this research investigates the connection between Pakistan's military spending and its external debt from 1972 to 2021. By using the ARDL model, both short-term and long-term associations were determined. The results indicate that a one percent increase in defense spending leads to a 6.81% increase in Pakistan's external debt. This study suggests that emerging countries such as Pakistan should reduce their military spending and enhance real GDP to stabilize inflation. Furthermore, governments should establish self-reliance in their own domestic defense sector to reduce their dependence on foreign loans and import spending.

Vicious Circle of Health Expenditure: Time Series Evidence from Pakistan

Akhtar Gul — 2023-06-02

Healthy workers determine the economic growth of a nation like Pakistan. Without healthy workers, nations never gain high productivity. In this study, the term ‘Vicious Circle of Health Expenditure" was used. The "vicious circle of health" is a concept that defines a self-reinforcing cycle of deprived health leading to additional negative health consequences and social shortcomings and disadvantages. The major objective of this study, to find, how and why Pakistani workers’ productivity low than many developing countries. For this purpose, we used five variables: health expenditure is dependent, while GDP per capita, employment, education expenditure, and trade are independent variables. Time series data was used, and the data range was 1972-2021. The econometric technique ARDL is used for long-run association. Therefore, the current study finds, mostly significant results. Pakistan GDP per capita and employment are statistically significant and have a positive impact on health expenditure. While education expenditure and trade have a statistically negative impact on health expenditure, Therefore, a statistically significant and negative coefficient (-0.98) indicates the short-run equilibrium converges to the long-run equilibrium. The study suggests, government of Pakistan increase the health budget as well as improve access to healthcare and enhance social support systems.

Do the Macroeconomic Forces Affect Stock Market Development? An Empirical Investigation from G-10 Economies

Sajjad Hussain — 2023-06-02

The theoretical and empirical literature has demonstrated the critical and significant role of the stock market in developing the economy. The relationship between stock market development (SMD) and macroeconomic variables is examined in the current study using panel data of the top 10 developed countries from 2000 to 2019. The data have been tested using the panel ARDL approach. This study discovered a significant relationship between gross domestic product, Inflation rate, banking sector development, and stock market liquidity and the stock market development. While foreign direct investment has an insignificant relationship with stock market development. The gross domestic product, banking sector development, and foreign direct investment have a positive impact on the stock market development while the inflation rate and stock market liquidity have a negative impact on the stock market development of the G-10 economies. The study has some important practical implications.

Stock Market Capitalization and its Macroeconomic Determinants: An Empirical Investigation from Emerging Economy

Maooz Rafay — 2023-06-16

The stock market's significance has extended beyond the domestic borders since it is playing a crucial role in attracting foreign direct investment by providing a transparent and regulated platform for investment. Foreign investors are attracting from countries with robust and well-regulated stock markets, contributing to economic growth, job creation, and technology transfer. We estimated the long-run & short-run effect of economic forces on capital market of Pakistan during 1980-2019. Results show that the development in the banking sector and gross domestic product positively while inflation, trade openness and foreign direct investment negatively influence the development of capital market. While in short-term only gross domestic product, inflation, and foreign direct investment is found to be significant. The negative value of error correction term indicates that if the variables vary from the level of equilibrium by 1% in the short term, they will return to equilibrium at a rate of 74.3% each year. The study has significant practical implications for the policy makers and government officials regarding the development of stock market.

Exploring the Interplay of Socio-economic and Environmental Factors in Green Logistics: An Analysis of G7 Countries

Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh — 2023-06-30

The study aimed to examine the socio-economic and environmental factors influencing green logistics in G7 countries. The study applied FMOLS and DMOLS techniques by using panel data spanning from 2007 to 2021. The findings indicate a positive association between green logistics indices and per-capita GDP growth, indicating that supply chain management is aligned with economic growth and corporate environmental policies to yield long-term benefits. Moreover, the panel causality analysis revealed one-way connections from a per-capita GDP and socio-economic factors to the logistics index. The study supports the "neutrality hypotheses" concerning the relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI), trade, and logistics index during the given time period. These findings emphasize the importance of adopting integrated sustainable chain management to promote environmental development. The study advocates for businesses to adopt a "go-for-green" approach to align with the environmental sustainability agenda. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, business leaders, and researchers working towards sustainable development in G7 countries.

Reassessing the Linkage between Economic Growth and Environment through the Lens of Deforestation, Pollution and Carbon Emission

Ramsha Anwer — 2023-06-30

Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 established by the United Nations aim, on the one hand, to achieve sustained growth and the eradication of poverty, and, on the other, to safeguard the environment. The relationship between development and the environment has been the subject of a substantial amount of research since the 1990s. This study has found that the link between economic growth and environmental degradation indicators in SAARC countries by modelling these connections utilising linear as well as non-linear regressions. The results show that economic growth leads to steadily improved efficiency of consuming the planet's nonrenewable resources; but, higher efficiency is not sufficient to counteract the expansion in scale. The study's findings show that economic growth and deforestation, air pollution, carbon emissions, and human capital are significantly related.